![]() ![]() Trump and Republicans - not just in approval polls that have been remarkably stable for four years, but also at the ballot box in 2018. “And those significant voter registration gains prove President Trump is expanding his base and will win four more years in the White House as a result.”Ĭertainly, these white non-college-educated voters continue to show enthusiasm for Mr. “As a clear show of support for the president’s policies, Americans are registering as Republican with a Republican president in office,” said Samantha Zager, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. His campaign leaders are betting that a two-year grass-roots mobilization that has yielded significant voter registration gains will overcome the demographic disadvantage and the polls, again. In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period. The decline, a demographic glacier driven largely by aging, has continued since 2016. Trump just enough of a margin to win the election in 2016 - has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters - who gave Mr. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level of enthusiasm and turnout from a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees.īut in 2020, Mr. Download the microdata behind this poll.Source: Census Current Population Survey, IPUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota. ![]() Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.22.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes.New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County Here are other common ways to weight a poll: In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result. Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Rouda would collapse the system.īased on administrative records. Rohrabaher has said illegal immigration is already straining many social programs, and that Democrats like Mr. In a recent Times article, he said, “We have a Republican Party that in many ways is leaving its Republican voters.” Rouda was a registered Republican, and in 2016, he donated money to the presidential hopeful John Kasich. The Republican House majority leader joked that Mr. that the Kremlin considered him such a valuable intelligence asset that they gave him a code name. But Hillary Clinton won it by two points. This affluent, coastal district was one of the most reliably Republican areas of the 20th century, and Republicans still have a 10-point registration advantage. 35% favorable rating 37% unfavorable 28% don’t know He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but voted against the tax reform bill. 27% favorable rating 15% unfavorable 58% don’t knowĭana Rohrabacher is the current representative, and he’s perhaps best known for his pro-Russia views. In the primary season, he was the rare Democrat who was endorsed by both Our Revolution, a progressive group, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Harley Rouda is a lawyer and real estate businessman. The locations shown here are approximate.Įxplore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. ![]()
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